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Erdogan’s space program may be cover to hide turkey’s ambition to develop missile technology

YB WEB DESK. Dated: 2/27/2021 12:32:03 PM

New Delhi, Feb 26 Turkey’s state-controlled missile maker Roketsan’s Khan (Bora) missile (pictured) has a range of 280 kilometres and carries a warhead of 470 kilograms. The system made its operational debut in May 2019 against a target in northern Iraq. The system is said to be based on Chinese B-611 technology that was acquired in exchange for the passage of the semi-finished Soviet-era aircraft carrier Varyag from the Turkish Straits. It was announced at the time that the platform would be used as a “floating leisure centre.” Yet it ended up becoming China’s first aircraft carrier and got the name “Liaoning.” An ambitious new space program unveiled by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan amid a deepening economic crisis has led experts to question whether it is meant to serve as a cover to circumvent international regulations to acquire the capacity to develop long-range ballistic missiles. According to the stateowned Anadolu news agency, the new program, which was introduced complete with publicity stunts on February 9, consists of 10 targets, with its “primary and most important mission” making Turkey’s first contact with the moon in 2023. The first stage of this goal is a rough landing to be made “with a national, domestically produced hybrid rocket that will be launched into orbit at the end of 2023 through international cooperation.” Other targets include establishing a space port, developing a regional positioning system and sending a Turkish astronaut onto space. Critics question the Turkish government’s decision to spend vast sums of money on a space program at a time when the country’s already struggling economy has been hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic. Yet, Erdoğan’s stated goal of developing long-range ballistic missiles, coupled with the limitations on importing foreign technology due to provisions of international arms control arrangements, suggests that the Turkish government might be planning to use its space program as a cover. Erdoğan’s desire to develop long-range missiles go back to early 2012, when the president of the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TÜBİTAK) announced that then-Prime Minister Erdoğan asked them to start developing missiles with a 2,500 kilometre range. According to internationally accepted classifications, this meant Turkey was interested in developing medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBM), which range between 1,000 and 3,000 kilometres. The Under secretariat for the Defence Industries (SSM), the top authority for defence industry planning and procurement, confirmed the existence of such efforts in September 2012. In November 2015 Erdoğan himself voiced his desire to develop longer range missiles in a TV interview. “We currently manufacture missiles, but we are not at the desired level with respect to range, which must be much longer,” he said. “What we … want are indigenous, long-range and offensive [missiles]. … If we build offensive [missiles], we will be addressing defence as well. While undergoing reserve officer training at Tuzla, they told us, ‘The best defence is a good offense.’ This is what we should be aiming for: offensive and long range. The moment we produce those [missiles], we will be solving the issue of defence, too.” Yet, Erdoğan’s statements were puzzling in different respects. According to Sıtkı Egeli, an international security expert and former SSM employee, a good strategic explanation was not given as to why Turkey, a NATO member and non-nuclear weapon state, has developed an interest in acquiring longrange missile capability. Turkey is party to nonproliferation and export control arrangements including the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) and the Hague Code of Conduct (HCOC), both of which aim at restraining the spread and use of ballistic missiles. MTCR brings restrictions to the import/export of what are known as Category I items. These include ballistic missiles and unmanned air vehicle systems with capabilities exceeding a 300kilometer/ 500 kilogram