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Pak back to old games

Young Bites. Dated: 6/18/2019 10:37:05 AM

The latest
attack on a CRPF patrol party in J&K shows how Jaish has mutated despite a global ban
Certain things don’t change in the Kashmir Valley regardless of whether we escalate a Pulwama, where 40 CRPF jawans were killed, with airstrikes and smash terror bases or de-escalate with peace talks. When it comes to exporting terror and subjecting India to “bleeding cuts”, Pakistan will continue to be a threat to peace and stability here and in the region and certainly won’t let up on an offensive that is an arrowhead of its strategic relevance. So the latest attack on a CRPF patrol party on a key stretch of the Amarnath Yatra route, that too just four months after Pulwama, shows that on-ground realities do not change, whether we are aggressively combustive or mildly reactive. The ambush, this time by militant shooters, had trademark characteristics of the banned Jaish-e-Mohammad, although claimed by a defunct Pakistan-based militant outfit called Al Umar Mujahideen. This proves the theory that while Pakistan apparently takes action against the terrorists it harbours on its soil in the face of international pressure, in reality it does not eliminate them. Its terror machinery is such a hydra-headed monster that when you shut down one module, it mutates into another. New religious charities spring up almost overnight to divert funding too. Although Hafiz Saeed, the founder of Lashkar and Jamaat-ud-Dawa’ah who planned the Mumbai terror attack in 2008, was listed by the UN as a global terrorist, the funding continued to his charities for some time before being completely frozen. Besides, the frontline offensive was seized by the Jaish since. Now that its chief Masood Azhar, too, features on the UN-designated list and has assets frozen, clearly the baton has been passed on to a new claimant. Yes, we have retaliated with non-military strikes on terror bases with Balakot, staying well under the nuclear threshold, but the fact of the matter is can we resort to such strikes every time and exhaust our surprise potential for deterrence? Can we over-saturate our response options and crow over getting terrorists blacklisted while being assaulted continuously? Clearly, we need to confront the reality fair and square, that the Pakistan military will continue to support terrorist groups and deploy them against its neighbours and only a broad international consensus and a sustained campaign can hold it off. Or else, it can always wriggle itself out of conflagrations by dangling its nuclear sword, one that has the US rush in as negotiator in our strategic backyard.
But now the Donald Trump administration has realised that while it needs Pakistan to work with the Taliban in Afghanistan, it also needs to maintain its strategic alliance with India in the larger interest. Which is why it is not too taken in by Pakistan’s snap detention of militants and freezing assets of their front organisations.
While these steps are clearly intended to buy its way out of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) blacklist, which would prevent it from getting loans from the IMF and World Bank, the US has seen through such tropes.
In fact, US diplomat Alice Wells feels Pakistan’s steps are still reversible and recently said that it must not only sustain these measures but expand their scope by prosecuting terrorist leaders.
Wells said she was equally concerned about Pakistan’s development of certain categories of nuclear weapons and delivery systems. Given the complexity of the US-Pakistan paradigm, India needs to work out its own counter-terror solutions because punitive strikes don’t guarantee anything more than momentary, tactical victories. While working on building up international pressure and even getting China to grant some leeway, there is much more work to be done where it matters the most.
The foremost task has to be about sealing the porosity of our security apparatus that still allows militants to get up, close and personal despite a review of operating procedures post-Pulwama. Our counter-intelligence mechanism needs to be sharper, empowered and equipped with resources to combat terrorism.
The most frightening prospect has been the ability of Pakistan-exported terror networks to now recruit disgruntled local youth.
It is for this reason that Jammu and Kashmir Governor Satya Pal Malik’s overtures, inviting Kashmiri youth for an open dialogue and refusal to commit on the status of Article 370 or 35A, are significant.
India now needs a cogent, mature and ground-up approach to choke Pakistan from all sides.