Bilateral political engagement

Young Bites. Dated: 10/17/2017 11:33:48 AM

There are a number of reasons why the Indo-Pak border in J&K is under immense stress today. First of all, the prevailing uprising and unrest in Kashmir functions as the larger political background to the ongoing CFVs. Secondly, Rawalpindi is clearly making use of the unrest in Kashmir to make a political point to the international community (about Indian atrocities in Kashmir). The unabated tension on the border helps highlight that point. Thirdly, the so-called surgical strikes by the Indian army inside Pakistani territory in response to the Uri terror strike have further heightened the border tensions. Finally, the lack of a bilateral political engagement is acting as a force multiplier to the tension on the border. In short, during periods of tension and in the absence of a political engagement, CFVs tend to rise, as was often seen in the past. Political sanction brings about an additional layer of permissiveness to the tactical military activities on the border. During normal times, however, CFVs occur mostly due to local-level military factors. While a properly written down CFA can ensure its sustainability during peacetime, a well-designed CFA can go a long way in ensuring a certain amount of restraint even during periods of political stress. The current standoff points to a failure of diplomacy at multiple levels. Therefore, in order to get the border back to normalcy, diplomatic initiatives need to be unleashed at multiple levels. First of all, the war of words by the two sides should end – statesmen should learn to speak like statesmen, with a sense of decorum and responsibility. Secondly, the two DGMOs should meet and talk things out – the key functionaries of the two professional armies know how to silence their guns, if there is a desire to do so, that is. Thirdly, Rawalpindi needs to understand that its renewed Kashmir campaign would not be able to wrest Kashmir from India – it’s fighting a battle that it simply can’t win. Four, the two NSAs should revive the back-channel parleys they started late last year only to abandon them midway through. Finally, Islamabad and New Delhi should draw up a new CFA – and this time, they should write it down! Even as India and Pakistan reached an agreement to end ceasefire violations in their DG-level talks at New Delhi, the latter’s troops violated the ceasefire understanding on the forward posts along the LoC in Jammu and Kashmir. Thirteen years after it came into effect, the India-Pakistan ceasefire agreement is in serious trouble. Shelling and firing across the Line of Control (LoC) and the International Border (IB) in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) has increased sharply over the past 40 days and is showing no signs of abating. The ongoing ceasefire violations have come amidst a significant deterioration in India-Pakistan relations, with the immediate trigger for the latest downturn being the September 18 attack on an Indian army camp at Uri in J&K. The attack, which was carried out by the Lashkar-e-Taiba, a Pakistan-based terrorist group with close ties to Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), was the deadliest on an Indian military facility in over a decade. It resulted in the death of around 18 Indian soldiers, prompting India to carry out a military assault on terrorist “launch pads” in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK) on the night of September 28-29. Following the Uri attack, India stepped up its diplomatic efforts to isolate Pakistan at the regional and global level for Islamabad’s support of anti-India terrorist groups. Delhi was successful in getting other South Asian countries to boycott a South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) summit that Islamabad was to host. More recently, India and Pakistan have been locked in a tit-for-tat contest to identify and expel each other’s High Commission staffers for alleged involvement in espionage activities. But more worrying than the growing diplomatic chill is the India-Pakistan military face-off along the LoC and the IB in J&K. Following the Indian assault on terrorist launch pads in POK, Pakistan struck back by firing into and shelling Indian territory. Since then, the mountains amidst which the LoC and the IB run in J&K have been reverberating to the sound of daily firing and shelling by Indian and Pakistani security forces.

 

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